1- Short GBP/JPY: Performs best in a risk-off and Brexit scenario.
2- Short CHF/JPY: Relative FX valuation and diverging monetary policies favour the JPY.
3- Long USD vs AUD, CAD, NZD and NOK Basket: Terms of trade weakness and commodity dis-investment should keep commodity FX offered.
4- Long USD vs SGD, TWD and THB Basket: Deleveraging Asian balance sheets create USD demand.
5- Long JPY vs KRW and CNH Basket: A trade benefiting from valuation differentials and Asian balance sheet deleveraging.
6- Short EUR/INR: A carry trade benefiting from high INR rates and a dovish ECB weakening the EUR.
7- Short EUR/MXN: The MXN should benefit from relatively unleveraged balance sheets and strong US trade.
8- Long USD/BRL: We expect a downgrade to non-investment grade, which should drive capital outflows.
9- Long USD/PLN: Upcoming changes to the NBP may bring about new risks for PLN, and widen the USD supportive yield spread.
10- Short CAD/RUB: RUB should benefit from fairer valuations and high yield support. Funding via CAD partially reduces oil sensitivity.
0 comments:
Post a Comment